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Independent Poll Firm Shows 3-Way Race To Presidency, Rise In Mayor Isko’s Numbers Puts Him Behind Frontrunner – Lito Banayo

TEAM ISKO chief campaign strategist Lito Banayo on Friday said the most recent independent survey conducted by big data research firm, Tangere, has shown that Aksyon Demokratiko standard bearer Isko Moreno Domagoso continues to consistently improve his numbers in voter preference, further narrowing the gap between him and Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

“This is going to be a very-very close fight, assuming na walang aatras. It’s up to Mayor Isko to close that gap,” Banayo said in a press conference held at the Isko Moreno Domagoso for President National Headquarters in Intramuros, Manila.

Tangere is an award-winning technology and innovation-driven market research and opinion poll company that has an active and continuously growing nationwide respondent base of more than 600,000.

Based on the results of Tangere’s survey conducted April 4-6 with 2,400 respondents, Moreno’s numbers rose to 24.21 percent, from 22 percent in the March 31 survey run.

The Tangere survey also affirmed Moreno’s standing as the preferred second choice for voters, next to their top presidential candidate choice.

Moreno is second top choice of 37.58 percent of respondents, followed by Lacson at 17.33 percent. Marcos Jr. is only at 13.75 percent and Robredo at 8.75 percent.

Survey results also showed that 48.4 percent of Marcos Jr. supporters and 53.44 percent of VP Leni supporters said they prefer Moreno as their second choice for president. This means that the Manila city mayor is the least disliked among the candidates.

The January 18 run of the survey showed the numbers of the Aksyon Demokratiko presidential candidate at 16.75 percent as compared to 16.29 percent last January 3.

In contrast, the Tangere surveys show a steady and consistent decline in the numbers of Marcos Jr. – from a high of around 60 percent in January 3, to 58 percent on January 18, 54 percent last February 5, and now dropping further to 48 percent in the April 4-6 poll.

This recent survey showed that the gap between Marcos Jr. and Mayor Isko, is drawing closer at a net difference of 24 percentage points, compared to a 32 percent point difference from the February 4-5 survey run.

Meanwhile, Vice President Leni Robredo remains in third place at 21 percent despite a surge in her numbers, largely driven by survey participants from her bailiwick, the Bicol Region. The top three candidates are followed by Sen. Manny Pacquiao (3.29%) and Sen. Panfilo Lacson (2.54%).

Banayo said the Tangere April 4-6 survey is more indicative of the real sentiments of the people at this point in time rather than the three-week old Pulse Asia survey taken March 15-17 but whose results were only published last April 6.

“It’s not vice president Robredo getting 24 percent, and Isko is only 8 percent. It’s a neck-to-neck fight between the two, vis-à-vis the slowly declining numbers of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.,” he said.

The seasoned campaign and political strategist clarified though that he is not disparaging Pulse Asia or its surveys, only that he is belying claims made by the other camps.

“What I am saying lang is yung pini-frame na parang insurmountable na yung numbers ni Ferdinand Marcos Jr., as in wala na, tapos na yung eleksyon, or the contention na dalawa na lang ang nag-lalaban, is belied by the numbers here,” Banayo pointed out.

In the meantime, Banayo believes that the gradual decline in the number of Marcos Jr. does not necessarily mean that that trend will follow such gradualness, as it could suddenly drop at one point in time.

“A lot of things happen in a campaign, it’s a very dynamic setup. One particular issue can bring you down,” he said, pointing to the case of Senator Grace Poe whose 2016 presidential run was irreversibly damaged by citizenship issues.

“Ganun din yan. There are so many elements that come in a presidential campaign that changes people’s minds quickly,” said Banayo.

P203-B Marcos Estate Tax

In Marcos Jr.’s case, Banayo said among the issues that can be his downfall are the failure of the Marcoses to pay their tax liabilities and his refusal to join debates.

“One I think is the P203 billion estate tax issue which the campaign has brought to the attention of the public. Another element here is refusal to be interviewed, refusal to join debates. Nakaka-turn off yun sa certain segment ng initial voting base,” he said.

In the Tangere survey, a significant portion of voters want the Marcoses to pay outstanding estate taxes, with 46 percent of respondents agreeing that Marcos Jr. and his family should pay the P203 billion estate tax due to the government.

In fact, even 33 percent of those that support a Marcos Jr. presidential bid agree that the Marcoses should settle the estate tax issue, while an overwhelming 59 percent of those supporting other presidential candidates think the same.

Furthermore, Banayo said the survey results only pointed out that the “unity” being peddled by the camp of Robredo is untenable.

“What you see in the data here is yung boto ni Isko Moreno, hindi pupunta kay VP Leni. Pag umatras siya o makikisama, yung boto niya pupunta kay Marcos Jr. The bulk of it goes that way. Ganun din yung the rest of the candidates,” he said.

Banayo also pointed out that the survey had shown that Robredo is the most disliked among the presidential candidates. In the survey, respondents were asked who will they not vote among the candidates. 45 percent said they will not vote for the vice president. Meanwhile, only 2 percent said they will not vote for Mayor Isko.

“Malakas ang non-preference kay leni Robredo as against the preference for Mayor Isko,” Banayo said. However, he said Aksyon Demokratiko is not making the call for Robredo to withdraw and lend her support for Mayor Isko.

“We cannot make that call. I’m just trying to explain na yung sinasabi nilang it’s down to a two-way contest is absolutely false. It’s a three-way contest,” Banayo said. #